Shaped like a crescent moon on the map, bordered by Angola, the DRC, Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Botswana, and Namibia, Zambia rarely dominates international headlines. Yet this landlocked nation of roughly 19 million people sits at the center of a quiet but intense contest: between debt and development, between competing foreign partners, and between political fragility and institutional renewal.

Here is why it matters.

Zambia by the Numbers

Zambia is a mid-sized economy for the region, with a GDP of around $21 billion, putting it fourth in Southern Africa behind South Africa, Angola, and Zimbabwe. The numbers underneath tell a more complex story. About 55% of Zambians live in rural areas, and although headline unemployment looks low on paper, most of the workforce works informally, concentrated outside the cities. Lusaka, the capital, is the country's only major urban center, home to roughly 2.8 million people in a country where urbanization sits at around 4%.

The economy leans heavily on one commodity: copper. Mining accounts for 18% of GDP and over 75% of exports, making Zambia the continent's second-largest copper producer. Agriculture, by contrast, generates only 3% of GDP despite employing about a fifth of the workforce, reflecting an economy built around capital-intensive extraction (mining, construction, distribution) rather than broad-based productivity.

The social indicators are significant:

• Poverty Rate: Has climbed toward 60% (at the $1.90 a day threshold).

• Malnutrition: Widespread across both rural and urban communities.

• Wealth Inequality: Nearly 45% of national wealth sits with the richest 10%.

• HDI Rank: Zambia ranks 143rd out of 189 countries on the UN's Human Development Index.

To understand where the country goes from here, it helps to start with its politics.

The End of One-Party Rule and the Rise of Hakainde Hichilema

Zambia's August 2021 election was won by Hakainde Hichilema, a result that drew attention well beyond Zambia's borders. The vote marked the third peaceful transfer of power since independence in 1964, following several difficult years for Zambian democracy under outgoing president Edgar Lungu (2015 to 2021). Lungu's tenure saw the intimidation and imprisonment of opposition figures and the closure of media outlets—developments that fueled concerns about a slide toward more authoritarian governance. Lungu conceded defeat shortly after the results were announced.

That 2021 vote closed a long chapter. For 27 of its 55 years as a republic, Zambia was a constitutional one-party state under Kenneth Kaunda and his United National Independence Party (UNIP). Economic strain and a series of scandals eventually pushed Kaunda to open up the political system, leading to the 1991 election that ended single-party rule.

Three leaders from the Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) governed from 1991 to 2011: Frederick Chiluba, Levy Mwanawasa, and Rupiah Banda, before Michael Sata's Patriotic Front (PF) won power in 2011. Sata's rise mattered because it shaped the career of his eventual successor, Edgar Lungu, who served as Sata's minister of home affairs and later justice and defense, before succeeding him in 2015. Facing a constitutional two-term limit, Lungu pursued a series of contested constitutional changes that opponents characterized as an attempt to secure a third mandate, prompting an impeachment motion from the opposition. Throughout this period, one figure remained the opposition's most prominent representative: Hakainde Hichilema.

Who is Hakainde Hichilema?

Hichilema's path to the presidency stands out in the region. Born into modest circumstances, he earned a scholarship to the University of Zambia and later an MBA from the University of Birmingham. Rather than building a career primarily through politics, he built a successful business career first, across finance, real estate, agribusiness, healthcare, and tourism.

His political career began in earnest in 2006, when he took over leadership of the United Party for National Development (UPND) from the late Anderson Mazoka. What followed was a long electoral path:

• 2006 & 2008: Third place in the presidential races.

• 2015: Narrow loss (46.7% against Lungu's 48.3%, which he disputed).

• 2016: Another narrow loss (47.6% against 50.4% for Lungu).

• 2017: Arrested on treason charges and accused of plotting to overthrow the government, spending four months in detention before release.

• August 2021: Won the presidency, defeating Lungu 59.02% to 38.71%.

Markets and international observers generally responded positively to his win, describing it as a notable moment given his previous legal and political setbacks.

An Economy Under Strain: Debt, Drought, and COVID-19

Zambia's economic difficulties predate the pandemic, but COVID-19 accelerated them. Copper prices and demand fell (down as much as 25% at the height of the crisis), the kwacha depreciated by roughly 30% against the dollar and 34% against the euro, and regional border closures added severe pressure on a landlocked economy. IMF projections pointed to a 2020 GDP contraction of 3.5%, while independent estimates suggested a contraction closer to 8% to 10%. By 2022, growth had returned to a range of about 3% to 3.5%, and the currency had stabilized.

The more structural challenge, however, is debt.

The Debt Spiral: Zambia's public debt rose from 36% of GDP in 2014 to nearly 80% by the end of 2018, then to 89% by the end of 2019, leading the IMF to classify the country as at "very high risk of debt distress." By 2021, the public debt-to-GDP ratio had reached 123.4%.

Roughly 30% of Zambia's external public debt is owed to China, and a quarter of total public debt consists of $3 billion in Eurobonds. That debt structure helps explain why Zambia has become such a notable case study in international economic engagement.

Foreign Partners: China, Russia, and Western Engagement

President Hichilema has not signaled a preference for exclusive alignment with any single power, while expressing interest in closer ties with the United States. Zambia's mineral wealth and strategic position continue to attract outside interest from multiple directions:

1. China's Evolving Footprint

Some Zambians have expressed concerns about the terms of Chinese-backed deals, labor conditions at Chinese-run operations, and the scale of debt exposure to China, alongside persistent rumors regarding Chinese involvement in state service acquisitions. At the same time, the economic relationship continues to grow: bilateral trade reached roughly $5 billion in 2018, and Chinese officials report that more than 600 Chinese companies have invested over $3 billion in Zambia, creating an estimated 50,000 local jobs. Zambia is also positioned to benefit from China's Belt and Road Initiative.

2. Russia's Nuclear Energy Push

Russia's engagement is more targeted toward energy cooperation. Russian state nuclear firm Rosatom is working with Zambia on a two-phase nuclear energy program:

• Phase 1: Building a Center for Nuclear Science and Technology, including a research reactor for producing medical isotopes (cancer treatment) and a gamma irradiator for food preservation and medical sterilization, developed alongside the IAEA.

• Phase 2: A full-scale nuclear power plant with capacity to supply power to the wider Southern African region.

3. Western & European Initiatives

The United States and France maintain smaller-scale, targeted initiatives. Notably, France's Engie has committed to ten new containerized solar mini-grids for rural areas—a modest but concrete step toward expanding clean electricity access.

A Challenge Foreign Investment Alone Cannot Solve

Hichilema's presidency represents potential opportunities for economic recovery, diversification, and political stability. At the same time, Zambia faces an urgent and separate challenge: climate-related food insecurity.

According to the World Food Programme:

• 48% of Zambia's population is unable to meet minimum caloric needs.

• 35% of children experience stunted growth due to malnutrition.

• Recurring droughts and floods directly affect more than 2.3 million people, threatening agricultural stability.

Conclusion

Zambia's situation extends far beyond the question of which foreign powers gain influence over its strategic mineral resources. It fundamentally concerns whether the country can build the institutional, economic, and environmental resilience needed to navigate mounting global pressures.

This piece draws on original research and analysis published in Diplomatie magazine